RSU Institute of Public Health develops economic models to support evidence-based healthcare policymaking

03 October 2025

Public Health

To support decision-making for the provision of high-quality health services, while taking into account the limited national healthcare budget in Latvia, the Rīga Stradiņš University (RSU) Institute of Public Health is the first research institution in Latvia to develop economic models for supporting more rational and sustainable decision-making in public healthcare policymaking and the allocation of state budget funds.

Taking a significant step toward more effective and evidence-based healthcare in Latvia, the RSU Institute of Public Health, within the framework of the National Research Programme “New Knowledge and Approaches to Reduce Antimicrobial Resistance, Limit the Spread of HIV and Expand Community Vaccination Coverage,”1 is developing health technology cost-effectiveness evaluation models in line with international healthcare methods extensively used in the world to improve patient health while optimising the allocation of financial resources. Economic modelling in healthcare service financing is a critically important tool for assessing the long-term costs and health benefits related to various health technologies (such as medications, vaccines, medical devices, surgical procedures, and more), thereby generating evidence to support more rational allocation of healthcare resources.

These models, frequently used in health economics, help to understand the progression and course of diseases, and the long-term impact of various interventions. The development of such economic models is based on a designed patient pathway, representing a patient’s progression through the treatment process depending on the natural course of the disease and potential outcome. In other words, these models simulate the course of a patient’s treatment, influenced by the probabilities of various scenarios. They synthesise data from various sources and, by applying mathematical and statistical methods, allow us to calculate the impact of data differences and assumptions made on the results obtained.

‘Given constantly growing patient needs and the cost of healthcare services, and as treatment options become increasingly complex, economic modelling can no longer be perceived as a choice in the context of limited public funding - it is an essential and integral part of decision-making,’ explained Uldis Hļevickis, RSU Institute of Public Health researcher.

‘The models we develop will provide evidence-based calculations on how limited resources can be used most effectively to maximise patient benefits.’

Economic modelling plays a crucial role in calculating the cost-effectiveness of health technologies, as it provides a structured approach to comparing costs and health benefits among different treatment interventions. Different model structures make it possible to predict the achievement of various healthcare goals, such as prevented deaths or extended life expectancy, reduced morbidity, or improved quality of life. Such models will enable the RSU Institute of Public Health researchers to calculate and compare the total costs and long-term health benefits of pilot interventions.

‘Economic modelling allows us to combine clinical evidence with financial reality,’ continues Hļevickis. ‘By using these tools, we can support more transparent, evidence-based decisions that ultimately improve patient access to services and help ensure the sustainability of the system.’

The RSU Institute of Public Health is developing economic models that will be piloted for the cost-effectiveness evaluation of three different preventive vaccines in Latvia, within the framework of the programme: