The end of the liberal world order: What comes next for the Baltic states?

With the United States stepping back from its leadership role in the rules-based liberal international order, where does that leave the Baltic states? This was one of the key questions addressed by Asst. Prof. Una Aleksandra Bērziņa-Čerenkova, Director of the Rīga Stradiņš University (RSU) China Studies Centre, during a panel discussion held on 5 May. She was joined by Volodymyr Dubovyk of Odesa I. I. Mechnikov National University and Andres Kasekamp of the University of Toronto. The discussion was organised by the Association for the Advancement of Baltic Studies (AABS).

While United States foreign policy has been marked by uncertainty and volatility, an important question arises: who stands to benefit from a shifting global order? Prof. Bērziņa-Čerenkova explored China’s role in consolidating its position within the global economic and security infrastructure at a time of declining US influence and cooperation. Although she acknowledged a potential thaw in EU–China relations, as both sides seek to de-risk from the US, she emphasised that the EU’s policy towards China is driven by strong domestic incentives within the bloc. As Bērziņa-Čerenkova noted: ‘European grievances with China do not stem from the recent turn in US foreign policy. Those are genuine grievances from European nations.’

When it comes to trade and economic development, Bērziņa-Čerenkova highlighted the weaknesses that recent tariff wars have exposed in China’s strategy for geopolitical influence. ‘China is not in a great place right now. The challenge to the global liberal order and free trade is not a point of strength for China, because it benefits from openness in economic relations,’ the professor observed. On the other hand, all panellists noted the shift in the balance of power within multilateral organisations. As the United States moves to reduce its influence in institutions such as the United Nations, China has been able to fill that vacuum and amplify its narrative.

All panellists agreed that the Baltic states play a stabilising role in international relations, particularly in mediating among allies. Prof. Dubovyk noted that the Baltics have an important voice in advocating for a strong force posture towards Russia and in supporting the continued presence of US troops in Europe. Prof. Kasekamp also highlighted how the Baltic states have reminded their US partners of their commitment to defence spending—earning them the designation of “the perfect allies”, a phrase recently used by Secretary of State Marco Rubio. One of the key takeaways from the discussion was that Baltic solidarity is globally unique, particularly in matters of security and a coherent foreign policy.

Lastly, regarding the role of the Baltic states in the seemingly shifting geopolitical landscape, Bērziņa-Čerenkova encouraged leading by example: 'Our strength lies in our role within multilateral organisations and cooperation. It is up to us to shape the conversation much of the time and demonstrate that we can do it effectively.'

The full recording of the discussion is available on Youtube.